The Horn of Africa teeters on the cusp of all-out war

Neighbours arethreatening to turn Somalia into a battleground for their old scores

December 23, 2006
Michelle Shephard
STAFF REPORTER

The struggle to rule Somalia got closer to igniting a proxy war across the Horn of Africa this week, drawing neighbouring countries – and, according to some intelligence reports, foreign terrorist groups – into a protracted battle with international ramifications.

The fighting over the last three days has reportedly driven hundreds of war-weary Somalis from their homes and witnesses said yesterday Ethiopian tanks have come rumbling to the defence of Baidoa, seat of the UN-backed Somali government that has struggled for legitimacy and power since its inception two years ago.

Officials in Addis Ababa denied their government had sent tanks onto the territory of their neighbour and ally. The Union of Islamic Courts, which has pacified Mogadishu, the Somali capital, and effectively controls most of the south of the country, said its militias were preparing to attack Baidoa.

Analysts agreed it would not be an easy fight against Ethiopia's powerful army, and the UIC's reported allies – Eritrea and Yemen – may be tempted to join the southern militia. Already, they have covertly supplied arms and training to the UIC, according to a UN report obtained by Associated Press.

Eritrea and the predominantly Christian Ethiopia fought a three-decade war of independence and since Eritrea became a country in 1993, the two have skirmished regularly across their border.

Many have warned that Somalia – which hasn't had a centralized government during the 15 years since President Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991 – could become the battleground for neighbours looking to settle old scores.

Peace talks held periodically in Khartoum, Sudan, between the transitional government and UIC have been stalled in part by the Islamists' demands that Ethiopian troops supporting the transitional government leave the country.

UIC leaders set last Tuesday as a deadline for the troops' exodus before following up on a promise of armed jihad against Ethiopia. If the battle is viewed as that of the Islamists versus Ethiopia and its Western allies, there's a fear the war could join the ranks of those being fought in Afghanistan and Iraq and attract a new generation of mujahedeen.

The International Committee of the Red Cross warned yesterday that dozens of civilians have been killed and more than 200 wounded during the last three days of fighting and a UN envoy for the region yesterday issued a plea for peace.

Somalia's future has special significance to Canada – believed to be home of the world's largest Somali diaspora outside Africa. Aside from a community of more than 100,000 residing mainly in Toronto and Ottawa, who sought refuge here in the past decade, there are many Somali-Canadians who have returned to east Africa to assume positions of power within the transitional federal government or the UIC.

The Toronto Star met with prominent Somali-Canadians and the leadership of the UIC during a trip into Mogadishu this fall. What was clear on the streets of Mogadishu, considered one of the most anarchic and dangerous cities in the world, was the widespread support for the UIC. Although foreigners are still at risk within Mogadishu, and the Star travelled with an armed convoy and had sought the written permission of the UIC to work in the city, residents of the city enjoyed unprecedented security and order.

Many did express concerns about the UIC's adherence to a strict interpretation of sharia law that curtailed many freedoms once enjoyed in a Muslim country that traditionally had secular rule. But there seemed a general acceptance among a population beaten down by years of fighting from rival warlords that some rights had to be sacrificed for security.

There is no doubt the UIC was able to do what no other local or international force could accomplish (the most horrific example being the notorious 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, when a failed U.S. mission to capture warlords ended in the deaths of hundreds of Somalis and 18 elite American soldiers).

But the U.S. has warned that senior UIC members have links to Al Qaeda and some compare their leadership to that of the Taliban – alleging that if the Islamists win control, Somalia will become a safe haven for terrorists fleeing other conflicts.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer was emphatic in her claims earlier this month that an Al Qaeda cell controls the UIC's leadership. "The top layer of the court are extremists. They are terrorists," she told local reporters, drawing rebukes from the UIC.

UIC military leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is on the U.S.'s terrorism watch list for alleged connections between a Somali group he founded in the 1990s and Al Qaeda.

During a September interview with the Star, Aweys denied any connection to groups outside Somalia and warned any U.S. intervention or support for the transitional government would be perceived as part of an American war on Muslims.

Unconfirmed local reports stated Aweys flew out of Mogadishu yesterday but would not reveal his destination.

If a full-scale war in Somalia is to be averted, the international community must first look to its meddling neighbours and help Ethiopia and Eritrea resolve their unresolved tension, argues Terrence Lyons, an associate professor at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution in his paper "Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa."

Lyons says the 2000 peace process that ended the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is falling apart – in particular, failing to demarcate a new border between the countries – and only by ending this stalemate can regional war be averted.

International involvement is now key – both in helping facilitate peace talks and avoiding strong-arm tactics that could draw foreign fighters and incite the wider war that Osama bin Laden called for during his last taped message.

Canada has traditionally had very little involvement in Somalia since our failed mission there in 1993, which ended in the beating death of a Somali teenager and the disbanding of Canada's elite Airborne Regiment.

Last week, Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay issued a statement expressing Canada's concern over the "deteriorating security situation."

"We strongly urge both the Transitional Federal Government and the Union of Islamic Courts to resume peace talks as soon as possible," he stated.

But government sources say there are no plans to participate directly in the talks, and with Canada's involvement in countries such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Haiti, there appears little hope that the government will make Somalia a priority.